4 Jobs Reports. 1 Message: The Labor Market is Softening

🚨 The job market just blinked—and mortgage rates may start to listen soon. From a sharp drop in job openings (JOLTS) to weaker private hiring (ADP) and rising unemployment claims, the labor market is starting to cool. That’s good news for rate watchers—and we break down what it means.

Author

Nick Steinhauer
May 05, 2025

A few weeks ago, I grabbed coffee at a local spot and spotted a “Now Hiring” sign out front. Naturally, I snapped a pic—my 15-year-old daughter’s not spending the summer bored on my couch. 😅

Good news: she got the job! 🙌

Curious news: I’m not seeing nearly as many of those signs around town anymore… definitely less than a year ago. That got me thinking—what’s really going on in the job market right now?

So this week, we’re diving into the latest jobs reports—and what they mean for the economy, the Fed, and yes… mortgage rates.

You get to see my nerdy side run wild. Let’s dive in!

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended UP compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the high 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the mid 6's.

📉 JOLTS Report: Fewer “Now Hiring” Signs = Rate Relief?

What it is:
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) tracks how many jobs employers are actively hiring for—not just total employment. It’s calculated from a survey of 21,000+ businesses. Released monthly.

Latest Insight:
Job openings dropped to 7.192 million—down from 7.480 million in February. This is similar to 2018-2019 levels.

Why it matters:
Fewer job openings mean less pressure on employers to raise wages—which cools inflation. For mortgage rates, this is a green light. It’s a sign the Fed’s rate hikes are doing their job… and we could be one step closer to rate cuts.

🔍 Fun fact: If a single job is posted in five different states, the JOLTS report counts it five times. Makes you wonder... is the real number of available jobs way lower than it looks? 🤔

💼 ADP Report: Private Paychecks Cool Off

What it is:
The ADP National Employment Report tracks private-sector payroll growth. It’s based on actual payroll data from over 25 million workers. Reports monthly.

Latest Insight:
Only 62,000 private jobs were added—well below expectations of 120,000. Job gains were concentrated in hospitability and leisure, while education and health services lost 23,000 positions.

Why it matters:
This report often front-runs the BLS jobs data. A weaker ADP number hints the labor market may be softening—something the Fed watches closely. If this trend holds, it's a tailwind for lower rates.

💼 Fun fact: The ADP report doesn’t survey people—it’s pulled from actual payroll data of over 25 million employees. So when it says job growth slowed down, it’s not just a guess... it's straight from the paychecks. 📊

🧾 Unemployment Claims: Cracks in the Job Market?

What it is:
This weekly report tracks how many people filed for jobless benefits for the first time. It’s a real-time snapshot of layoffs.

Latest Insight:
Claims ticked up to 241,000, the highest since February. Continuing claims (people staying unemployed) also rose to 1.916 million, the highest since November 2021 but still very low.

Why it matters:
Rising claims suggest more Americans are struggling to find work. For mortgage pros, that’s a signal of possible Fed easing. If the labor market continues to weaken, the odds of rate cuts increase—potentially pulling mortgage rates lower.

🧾 Fun fact: The unemployment claims report drops every Thursday morning—making it one of the fastest real-time indicators of trouble in the job market.

📊 BLS Jobs Report: Solid, But Not Scorching

What it is:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report is the main event. It’s calculated from two surveys—one called the establishment survey (payrolls) and one called the household survey (employment rate).

The Establishment Survey (aka Payroll Survey)

Who’s surveyed: About 119,000 businesses and government agencies, covering more than 600,000 worksites. Does not include self-employed or farming jobs.

What it tracks:

  • Total number of jobs added or lost

  • Wage growth

  • Hours worked

  • Industry-specific employment (e.g., construction vs. healthcare)

The Household Survey (aka Unemployment Survey)

Who’s surveyed: About 60,000 households (not businesses).

What it tracks:

  • The unemployment rate

  • Labor force participation

  • Number of people working part-time vs. full-time

  • People not in the labor force (retired, students, discouraged workers)

Latest Insight:
The U.S. added 177,000 jobs (expected 133,000), and unemployment stayed put at 4.2% (which is still a very healthy rate). Wages rose just 0.2%, a slowdown from March.

Why it matters:
Steady job growth, coupled with moderate wage increases and a stable unemployment rate, suggests a balanced economic environment. The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain current interest rates in the short term.

🕵️‍♂️ Fun fact: The BLS jobs numbers are always revised—sometimes by tens of thousands of jobs. That “big beat” headline you see on Friday? It might quietly get adjusted months later… and nobody talks about it. 📉🔁

📅Mark Your Calendars - 5/21 - Agent Refresh & Reboot

Kreg and I are hitting the stage at Agent Refresh & Reboot on Wednesday, 5/21, and it’s going down at the stunning Venue at Hocking Hills Cabins & Resort. 🌲🎤

🔥 It’s your mid-season mindset reset.
🧠 Come fuel up with fresh ideas, power-packed strategies, and a few surprise gems from a killer speaker lineup (yes, we’re bringing the heat too).

🕙 10AM–Noon: Game-changing insights.
🍽️ Noon: Lunch is on deck.
💆‍♀️ Mini massages? ✅
💐 Fresh bouquets to take home? Yup, we got those too.

Whether you need a second-half strategy boost or just a break from the grind—this event is your moment.

Come reset, recharge, and crush the rest of 2025. Let’s go! 💥

Instagram Reels from the Week

Two Ways We Can Help

  1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

  2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!