Fed Cuts and Mortgage Rates Spike Again 🤦‍♂️

We are already in the beginning of November. The days feel shorter, the holidays are approaching. A lot of real estate agents and lenders take time off over the next few months. Use these next 60 days to the fullest and finish the year stronger than ever. Let folks know YOU are available. Your readiness to serve will translate into business.

Join us in making these next 60 days count 💪

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Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended HIGHER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the mid-6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the high 5’s - low 6's.

Fed Cuts and Mortgage Rates Spike Again 🤦‍♂️

On Wednesday, our ol’ buddy Jerome Powell was up to his typical shenanigans, giving the markets some sound bites they didn’t like.

As expected, the Fed cut the Fed Funds Rate 25bps. No harm, no foul with that. But then Powell threw cold water on the excitement, making it clear that a December rate cut isn’t guaranteed unless the data gives him a compelling reason.

Markets didn’t love that. Within minutes, traders scaled back their expectations for another cut this year.

Powell also mentioned an end to Quantitative Tightening (QT) on December 1st. For the past two years, the Fed’s been shrinking its balance sheet by letting Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) mature without reinvesting. Starting in December, they’ll begin reinvesting those proceeds — but only into Treasuries, not MBS.

Here’s what that means for rates: without the Fed reinvesting in MBS, supply goes up while demand softens, which can push mortgage rates a bit higher. On the flip side, the Fed’s Treasury buying adds liquidity to the market, which could help keep rates from spiking.

Bottom line: expect rates to hold steady or drift slightly higher in the near term — until we see fresh signs of weaker inflation, renewed MBS demand, or a rough jobs report once the government shutdown ends.

The Jobs Report Is Missing… But The Warning Signs Aren’t

It’s the first week of the month, which usually means we’re all watching for the latest jobs report — one of the biggest movers for mortgage rates. But with the ongoing government shutdown, that report’s on hold.

That means markets are flying blind — we’re now closing in on two months without fresh labor data. So investors are turning to other clues to figure out what’s really happening in the U.S. job market.

And lately, those clues aren’t looking great. Major employers like UPS, Amazon, and Intel have all announced sizable layoffs. That could be a sign the labor market is finally starting to crack — either from weaker consumer demand or the early impact of AI replacing certain roles, especially in the tech sector.

If these layoffs continue and spread, the next round of official data could show negative job growth and a rising unemployment rate. And when unemployment starts climbing, it usually doesn’t stop gently — it spikes.

Another Chart Showing a Frozen Housing Market 🥶

As if we need another chart to tell us what we already know…

Redfin reported that “only 28 out of every 1,000 (2.8%) US homes have changed hands in 2025 - the lowest turnover rate in at least 30 years”. Its calculated by looking at homes sold in the first nine months of the year divided into the total number of sellable homes that exist.

The authors point to three factors responsible for the low rate : affordability, sellers “locked-in” to a low mortgage rate, economic uncertainty.

New York and many, larger California cities top the chart with the lowest turnover rate (between 10 to 16 sales per 1,000 homes). Columbus, Ohio sits at 26, which is down from 27.6 last year.

We’re all going to learn a little bit more about grit and perseverance during these down markets 💪 

Rebel 2026 - Speakers Revealed & Tickets On Sale

The word is finally out! Speakers for our Rebel 2026 in early February have been released…and the lineup is nothing short of amazing. Central Ohio is getting world-class talent on the same stage.

We’ve got the world’s most talented emcee as the master of ceremonies, local talents who are making big waves across the country, branding experts who have helped some of the biggest in the industry shine online and the world’s leading expert on scaling.

What is Rebel?

Rebel is a one-day event where professional misfits, marketers, and entrepreneurs come together to burn the old playbook and build something better. Raw. Loud. Unlike anything this industry has seen.

Mark Your Calendars 📅 The big event will be on Thursday February 5th, 2026

Get your tickets now…

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Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!