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Powell Cuts Rates and Mortgage Rates Go Up...What?!

Powell Cuts Rates and Mortgage Rates Go Up...What?!

Powell cuts rates...but mortgage rates rise. What’s driving this upside-down market, and could 2025 repeat last year’s rate surge? Trump’s $100K visa fee is shaking up housing demand and wages—including right here in Central Ohio. Meanwhile, Nvidia is betting $5 billion on Intel’s Columbus-area mega-fab, setting the stage for more jobs, higher pay, and a tech boom in our backyard.

Nick Steinhauer
September 22, 2025

Kreg and I joined a weekend golf trip that was unforgettable—but the real highlight wasn’t on the course, my scores confirmed that.

I can count on one hand how many times I’ve smoked a cigar (and it shows), yet each of those moments has sparked deep, lasting conversations. This trip was no different: late-night talks in the cigar room with friends I truly respect brought personal and professional insights I’ll carry forward.

There’s something about slowing down—letting the day settle and the conversation flow—that invites a deeper level of connection. For me, that was the true takeaway of the trip: beautiful landscape and five-star lodging are memorable, but meaningful conversations with trusted friends are what last.

FOOTNOTE: I got an earful from my youngest when she heard I smoked a cigar 🤣

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended HIGHER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the mid-6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the high 5’s - low 6's.

Powell Cuts Rates and Mortgage Rates Go Up…What?!

On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cut the federal funds rate by 0.25%—just as expected. Apparently everybody assumes that should nudge mortgage rates lower. Instead, 30-year mortgage rates ticked higher.

This isn’t new.

Back in September 2024, the Fed cut rates and long-term yields spiked sharply, sending mortgage rates much higher in the weeks that followed. Why? Because the economic data that followed last year’s meeting came in hotter than expected.

This week, Powell sounded more hawkish and data-dependent than dovish in his press conference, stressing that future cuts will only come with clear evidence of cooling inflation and job growth. That tougher tone caused bond traders to sell longer-term Treasuries, pushing 10-year yields—and mortgage rates—up even as the Fed lowered short-term rates.

Is 2025 a repeat of 2024? Maybe not entirely. Inflation has cooled more than it had a year ago, and economic growth is less red-hot, which could limit how high long-term rates climb. The US job market is on a much slower trend in 2025 vs. 2024. Still, if incoming data stays strong, markets could once again price in fewer cuts and keep mortgage rates elevated.

Key Takeaway: A rate cut isn’t an automatic mortgage break. The Fed’s words—and the next few data releases—will decide whether this year’s bump is temporary or another 2024-style surge.

Trump’s $100K Visa Fee Could Shake Up the Housing Market

The H-1B visa is how U.S. companies bring in top global talent—think engineers, medical researchers, and tech innovators. These workers don’t just fill jobs; they buy homes, rent apartments, and fuel local economies.

This week President Trump signed a proclamation adding a $100,000 fee to most new H-1B applications from outside the U.S. The goal: slow foreign hiring, protect American jobs, and push wages higher so companies invest in U.S. workers first. Current H-1B holders and “national interest” cases are mostly exempt.

What does this mean for real estate? Fewer new arrivals from outside the US could cool housing demand in tech-heavy markets and fast-growing regions like Central Ohio, home to Intel’s massive chip plant and a growing fintech/healthcare scene. Builders may rethink projects, and buyers might see a bit less competition.

The president’s goal is for stronger job opportunities and potentially better pay for U.S. citizens. That could help more Americans qualify for mortgages and support steady, homegrown housing demand.

Key Takeaway: While politics can feel a thousand miles away, a new visa proclamation can still move the housing needle right here in Columbus, shaping both who buys and how much they can afford.

Nvidia Drops $5 B on Intel—Supercharging Ohio’s Silicon Heartland

Nvidia is investing $5 billion in Intel—and that’s huge news for Central Ohio. Nvidia, the AI and graphics-chip giant, is buying about a 4% stake and partnering with Intel to build next-gen chips that merge Intel’s CPU power with Nvidia’s AI smarts.

The $5 billion isn’t just a financial boost; it’s a vote of confidence in Intel’s Ohio strategy. Intel already promised about $28 billion for two fabs here with room to expand toward $100 billion over the next decade. Now, with Nvidia essentially saying “we believe in this,” the odds of those fabs running full steam—and maybe adding even more lines—just went way up.

That’s huge for our region. Intel expects 3,000 permanent high-skill jobs, 7,000 construction jobs, and tens of thousands of spin-off roles with suppliers, contractors, and local businesses. An Nvidia-powered demand surge could mean even more hiring and higher-paying jobs, stronger local tax revenue, and a lasting magnet for other tech companies.

That could mean thousands of additional high-skill, high-pay jobs, more business for local suppliers, and a surge in housing demand from New Albany to Granville. Home values, new construction, and local businesses all stand to benefit as this project supercharges the region’s economy.

Key Takeaway: Nvidia’s $5 billion investment makes the Columbus area a frontline player in the next generation of computing. For residents, it’s not just a headline; it’s a long-term boost for jobs, housing, and opportunity that could redefine the region’s economy for decades.

Rebel 2026 - Speaker Reveal & Tickets Go On Sale 10/21

350 seats disappeared in 70 minutes, and those who waited missed out. That’s what happened at last year’s speaker reveal and we don’t want that happening to you this year.

What is Rebel?

Rebel is a one-day event where professional misfits, marketers, and entrepreneurs come together to burn the old playbook and build something better. Raw. Loud. Unlike anything this industry has seen.

Mark Your Calendars 📅 The big event will be on Thursday February 5th, 2026

But first…