A New Sheriff In Town - Expect the Unexpected

Father's Day 2026...started with church, ended with an ER visit. Not exactly the plan, but here we are. After a great morning at church and lunch with Nick and his family, I somehow managed to break my daughter Emery's hand with a softball during what was supposed to be a fun evening with the family. Dad of the Year award is officially off the table 🫠 She's okay, I'm exhausted, and we're both moving on.

But the mortgage world waits for no one, broken hands or not. Let's gooo!

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Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended HIGHER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the mid 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the low 6's.

A New Sheriff In Town - Expect the Unexpected

We all had that one friend growing up. Dated the same person for years but could never fully commit. For me, it was my boy Bobbie and his girlfriend Rickie. The constant back-and-forth, together, broken up, back together, broken up again, until eventually you just stopped caring. After the 1,625,925th breakup, it's hard to muster sympathy for your boy when you already know exactly how the story ends. He's going straight back to that well.

That's exactly where Nick and I are with this Iran situation. And unfortunately, financial markets are caught right in the middle of it.

We've gone completely numb to the headlines. One day we're on the brink of war: stocks tank, oil spikes, and mortgage rates shoot up. The next day, Trump floats a peace deal: stocks rip, oil tanks, and rates slide back down. Then, right on cue, the whole cycle resets and does it all over again.

At this point, it's just Bobbie and Rickie all over again. And we've officially run out of reactions.

Until the day came when Rickie finally went off to college. I remember getting that call from Bobbie. She broke it off again after her first weekend at Ohio University. Word on the street was that she met a new man. I had that uneasy feeling for my boy that something was different this time. A new sheriff was in town and it was enough to sever their relationship forever.

That's exactly what is happening in the financial markets right now. Jerome Powell is the old high school drama. For eight years, the Fed played the same game, telegraphing every move before making it. Rate cut hints sent stocks soaring. Rate hike talk sent them cratering. Markets didn't move on data, they moved on whatever Powell was hinting at next. It was the Bobbie and Rickie breakup cycle, just dressed up in a suit and tie.

Enter Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve Chair. And just like that new guy at Ohio University, he is changing the dynamic entirely. Warsh has made it clear: the era of forward guidance is over. No more predicting future rate cuts or hikes. No more telegraphing moves months in advance. The Fed will simply look at the data in front of them and make a decision. That's it.

Sounds simple, right? It is. But after eight years of Powell preparing the markets for every move like a weather forecast, this is a massive shift. Expect volatility. Expect uncertainty. And for those of you watching mortgage rates, expect the ride to get a lot less predictable. The new sheriff is in town, and he's not here to hold anyone's hand.

The Bill That Could Unlock a Wave of New Buyers

While everyone has been glued to Iran headlines and Fed drama, a quiet little bill got introduced in Congress last month that nobody is talking about. And honestly, it might matter more to your pipeline than anything Jerome Powell ever said.

Meet the Clean Slate through Rehabilitation Act, introduced April 16, 2026. Here's the gist: right now, when someone defaults on a student loan or collection and then does the right thing by rehabilitating it, only the default itself gets scrubbed from their credit report. All those late payments and delinquencies still show as derogatory items on their credit, dragging down their scores.

This bill changes that. Once a borrower completes rehabilitation, all adverse information tied to that loan gets wiped. Not just the default. Legit everything. It's a genuine fresh start as if the derogatory item never existed.

For everyone in the housing industry, this is a big deal. There are millions of Americans right now who want to buy a home but can't get past the qualification stage because of old student loan damage or past collections haunting their credit report. We're not talking about irresponsible people. We're talking about people who stumbled, did the hard work to fix it, made every payment, and are still being penalized for it. This bill removes that penalty entirely.

Better credit scores mean more borrowers crossing the qualification threshold. More qualified buyers mean more demand. And in a market already starving for inventory, more demand means upward pressure on prices. Whether flooding an inventory-starved market with new buyers is good for the overall health of housing is a conversation for another day. For now, we'll take the win. More people qualified = More people in homes. We can debate the rest later 😉

The Airbnb Gold Rush Is Over. So Where Is the Smart Money Going?

For a solid decade, short-term rentals were one of the most attractive real estate investment strategies available. Buy a property in a desirable market, list it on Airbnb, and generate cash flow that far exceeded traditional long-term rentals.

Those days are becoming increasingly difficult to replicate.

Across the country, cities are cracking down on short-term rentals. Local governments are creating dedicated enforcement teams, requiring registrations and permits, sharing host data with rental platforms, and imposing significant fines for non-compliance. The message is becoming clear: the days of buying a property anywhere and turning it into a profitable Airbnb are fading.

But it is not just the cities you have to worry about anymore. The bigger risk may be the homeowners association (HOA).

An estimated 25 to 30 percent of all Airbnb listings in the U.S. sit inside HOA-governed communities. While some HOAs currently allow short-term rentals, those rules can change quickly. In many communities, all it takes is a supermajority vote of homeowners to amend the governing documents and prohibit short-term rentals altogether.

I experienced this firsthand while evaluating short-term rental opportunities in Sedona, Arizona. Nearly every property located within an HOA was immediately removed from consideration. Many communities already had restrictions in place, and others were actively discussing new limitations. The takeaway should be simple. If your business model depends on short-term rentals, an HOA introduces a level of risk that is difficult to control. You are essentially one community vote away from losing the strategy that justified the purchase in the first place.

So where does the smart money go from here?

Many investors are shifting toward mid-term rentals, typically furnished properties leased for 30 to 90 days. These rentals often attract traveling nurses, remote workers, corporate relocations, and other professionals seeking temporary housing. In many markets, they continue to produce attractive returns while avoiding much of the regulatory scrutiny facing short-term rentals.

The question investors should be asking today is no longer, "How much can this property make on Airbnb?"

Instead, ask yourself: "Where can I generate strong returns without a city council or HOA board having the power to shut down my business model with a single vote?"

That is a question worth answering before making your next investment purchase.

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