Employment Crumbles - Big Win for Mortgage Rates!

Nick and I don’t say this often—but the mortgage market is on the verge of a major shift. This week gave us a sneak peek at what could be coming between now and the near future. And yes… we’re nerding out over it! Let’s break it down—this is going to be good!

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended DOWN compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates remain in the mid to high 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the low 6's.

Lower Mortgage Rates, Here We Come!

If you’ve been following our newsletter, you already know—Nick and I have been shouting from the rooftops: mortgage rates won’t budge until we see meaningful shifts in employment and inflation data. As much as they think otherwise, neither the Fed nor the President can wave a magic wand to change that. The path to lower rates runs straight through softer inflation and weaker job numbers.

Here’s why:

• When inflation cools down, interest rates have room to pull lower to help support economic growth.

• When employment slows, the economy needs a boost—usually in the form of lower rates.

Until we see clear, consistent movement on both fronts, rates are likely to stay stuck in the high 6% range—just like they’ve been for the better part of three years.

But this week, for the first time in a while, we saw a crack in the data—and it just might signal the beginning of a much-needed shift!

Employment Crumbles - Big Win for Mortgage Rates!

Nick and I always feel a little weird rooting for weak job numbers. We know what that means—real people facing layoffs, financial stress, and tough decisions. But our job is to help 🫵 understand how the economy moves the mortgage market, and this week gave us a textbook example.

Friday’s July jobs report showed just 73,000 new jobs added—far below the 110,000 expected. But the real shock came in the revisions to prior months:

• May was revised down by 125,000 (from +144K to +19K)

• June was revised down by 133,000 (from +147K to +14K)

That’s 258,000 jobs shredded from the data—Gone.

IN 👏TWO👏 MONTHS!

So why are we seeing these absolutely insane job revisions?!

The Bureau of Labor Statistics doesn’t get all the data immediately. As more employer reports trickle in, they revise the numbers. This time, those revisions painted a much weaker labor market than originally thought.

So what does this mean for mortgage rates? Simple: weaker job growth = less inflation pressure = lower rates.

On the heels of this report, rates dropped about 0.125%. We're now at the lowest levels since early April, and possibly approaching October 2024 territory when rates were in the low 6's 🤞

Fed Holds Steady... But Not for Long!

Our boy, Jerome Powell, and the Fed met on Wednesday and, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged—marking the fifth straight meeting with no movement since December 2024.

All year, pressure has been building for the Fed to finally make a cut. But Powell has held his ground, citing ongoing inflation risks (thanks in part to tariffs) and what he has called a “strong labor market.”

Then—just 24 hours later—we got hit with that brutal jobs report that told a completely different story.

That negative employment data punched a hole in Powell’s “strong labor market” narrative and changed the market’s expectations overnight.

Immediately after the report, the odds of a rate cut at the September Fed meeting jumped to 75%—a huge swing in sentiment.

Rebel 2026 : VIP Presale August 5th @ Noon

Rebel 2026 takes place on Thursday February 5th, 2026.

We are doing things a little different this year for our true fans, especially our subscribers. 75 seats will be released early. No fanfare.

On October 21, we’ll lift the curtain on the whole event to over 1,000 people.

But if you wait until then to move, you’ll be watching from outside the tent... again.

This is your early signal. No second chance.

👉 The VIP window opens briefly August 5 at noon. You in?

Big Summer Bash : August 12th 4-9PM

Join us, along with a bunch of sponsors, to end summer in style.

🔥🐾 Animal selfies. Hot air balloon rides. A swimming pond.
Central Ohio’s favorite, North to Nashville, will be performing 🪕
Plus food trucks, live music, a DJ, party buses, and ice-cold drinks.

📅 Tuesday August 12th | 4–9 PM
📍 Retreat 21 (Party buses from Black Tie Moving on Sawmill Rd are available)
🎟️ Limited tickets — grab yours now before we sell out

This is more than just a party — it’s a chance to give back.
Proceeds from the ticket sales benefit the Tom Fennessy & Mike Harden Backpack Foundation 🙌

Instagram Reels from the Week

Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!