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How Real Estate Could Change if State Income Taxes Were Eliminated in Ohio
With the final Fed meeting of 2025 just days away, another rate cut is likely—though the real story is what they signal for 2026. And if that wasn’t enough, Trump stirred the pot again by floating a plan to eliminate federal income taxes altogether, sparking fresh debates that could impact housing, taxes, and the broader economy.
Finally got our Christmas tree and lights up!
Every year, it seems as if we get the decor up a little later. I guess that's what juggling four kids will do to you! 🤣 One thing that never waits, though, is this newsletter! We’ve got a lot to unpack this week! From the Fed’s final meeting of the year to bold tax proposals making headlines. We are here to break it down!
Let's gooo!
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Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended FLAT compared to last week, and volatility was MODERATE. Rates remain in the low 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the high 5's.
It's the Final Fed Week of 2025!
We’ve finally reached the last Fed meeting of the year! Woohoo! Crazy how fast 2025 flew by! It’s actually been a pretty predictable year from the Fed’s perspective. They cut rates in September and again in October, and all signs now point to one more 0.25% cut this Wednesday. Just like the previous cuts, don’t expect this to have much impact on long-term mortgage rates.

Could the Fed surprise us and hold off? Sure, there's always a chance. But the Fed has been pretty consistent all year, sticking mostly to their plan. We might see some disagreement among Fed members about how quickly rates should fall in the future, but the real story will be their outlook on the job market and the economy heading into 2026.
Hiring is slowing, unemployment is ticking up, and Fed officials are divided on whether that calls for faster cuts in the future or take a more cautious approach while inflation continues to linger.
Politics are also starting to creep in. President Trump will be choosing the next Fed Chair, and a Supreme Court case early next year could shake up the Fed’s leadership.
Key Takeaway: We’ll likely get another rate cut this week. However, the real story is what the Fed signals for 2026, especially for those of us in the housing world.
Trump Floats Eliminating Federal Income Tax for All
Whether you love Trump or can’t stand him, you have to admit...he never fails to give us something interesting to talk about in these newsletters! 😂
This past week, he made headlines by claiming that money from tariffs and foreign investments could eventually replace income taxes for all. Sounds exciting in theory, but many economists say the math just doesn’t work.

Last year, the U.S. collected $2.7 trillion from income taxes and only $195 billion from tariffs. Even the most optimistic projections for future tariff revenue fall far short. Experts from NYU, UCLA, and the Peterson Institute all agree: tariffs simply can’t replace income taxes.
Interestingly though, several states already operate without a state income tax, making up revenue through higher sales or property taxes, tourism, or natural resources. These states include:
Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and Wyoming

In Ohio, Governor candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is also pushing to eliminate the state income tax. He argues it would leave residents with more money, make Ohio more competitive, and attract businesses. Even without Trump's push, the idea of eliminating taxes at the state level is clearly gaining traction.
Key Takeaway: Trump’s plan to eliminate federal income taxes using tariffs is unrealistic, but it sparks discussion about tax policy nationwide. In Ohio, candidates like Vivek Ramaswamy are exploring state-level income tax cuts, which could boost residents’ take-home pay and attract businesses, though it would come with trade-offs for public services and other taxes.
How Real Estate Could Change if State Income Taxes Were Eliminated in Ohio
If Ohio eliminated its state income tax, the housing market would feel both the benefits and the challenges. Here’s a quick breakdown:
Potential Upsides:
More $$$ in buyer's pockets: With no income tax, residents would have more disposable income, which could make homes more affordable and potentially increase demand.
Attracting people and businesses: Lower taxes could bring more people and companies to Ohio, which would increase demand for housing, new developments, and rental properties.
Strong local economy: More spending and investment could energize neighborhoods, retail, and overall housing market activity.
Potential Downsides:
Less funding for public services: Schools, roads, and local infrastructure rely on state funding. If revenue drops and services suffer, some areas may become less desirable to live in.
Higher property or sales taxes: The money has to be made up somewhere. To make up for lost income tax revenue, Ohio might raise other taxes, which could offset the gains for homeowners and increase carrying costs. God knows, Ohio is already among the top 10 states with the highest property-tax burdens in the country. We all know, you can't squeeze blood out of a turnip...
Uneven impact: Wealthier individuals may benefit most, while lower-income residents could face higher indirect costs if other taxes rise.

Key Takeaway: Eliminating Ohio’s income tax could give buyers more spending power and attract growth...but it could also shift costs elsewhere, affecting affordability and the housing market in complex ways.
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Mark Your Calendars 📅 The big event will be on Thursday February 5th, 2026
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