Inflation Heats Up 🔥🔥 You Can Thank Tariffs!

Whoever said “April showers bring May flowers” clearly didn’t live through summer 2025—because it’s felt more like nonstop rain from April straight through July! I can’t remember the last time we had this much rain this late in the season... and I’m definitely over it!

Meanwhile, the market isn’t giving us much of a break either. With inflation heating up, the Fed holding firm, and creative loan programs gaining traction, there’s plenty to cover! This week, we’re digging into what’s really going on with mortgage rates—and why Trump’s latest comments are stirring the pot. Let’s jump in!

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Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended FLAT compared to last week, and volatility was MODERATE. Rates remain in the high 6% to low 7% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the mid/high 6's.

Inflation Heats Up 🔥🔥 You Can Thank Tariffs!

Maybe Powell was right after all?! The threat of tariff related inflation may be a real thing 🤷‍♂️

We received the highly anticipated June Inflation report on Tuesday. This was the last big report before the Fed's next meeting at the end of July. Nick and I knew that if inflation came in higher than expected, there was no chance the Fed would even consider a rate cut at the end of July. But if inflation cooled off in a big way? Rate cut potential was back on the table!

The report was released and sure enough, the inflation reading for June came in a little hotter than expected. Overall prices rose 0.3% in June, the biggest monthly jump since January, which pushed the annual inflation rate up to 2.7%.

There was some good news: used and new car prices dropped, airfare and hotel costs came down, and housing costs stayed pretty steady.

But here’s where it gets tricky: tariffs (those extra taxes on imported goods) are starting to creep into the picture. Prices for things like furniture, electronics, and toys all posted their biggest increases in over a year... And with more tariffs coming in August, that pressure may get worse.

What’s all this mean for mortgage rates? In short, we’re likely to remain in a holding pattern. The Fed isn’t expected to touch rates at their July meeting. They’ll wait on more data in August and September before making any big moves. Even when they do, there is no guarantee it will affect mortgage rates.

Trump Wants Rates at 1% – Could Mortgage Rates Follow?

The next year is shaping up to be an absolute rollercoaster ride when it comes to the economy and interest rates.

Trump is once again putting pressure on the Fed—calling for a massive 3-point rate cut, claiming it would save the U.S. $1 trillion a year. We all know he’s no fan of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, but Powell’s term doesn’t end until 2026, so for now, Trump’s demands are just that—demands.

But Trump’s push does raise an interesting question: If the Fed did slash rates that much, would mortgage rates drop too?

Not necessarily.

We all need to remember, mortgage rates don’t move in lockstep with the Fed rate. In fact, we saw this play out at the end of last year:

• September: Fed cut by 0.50% → mortgage rates spiked shortly after

• November: Fed cut by 0.25% → mortgage rates inched up

• December: Fed cut by another 0.25% → mortgage rates still didn’t fall

So while Trump can push for lower rates all he wants, even if Powell does cut again, it doesn’t guarantee mortgage rates will follow.

Buy Before You Sell Programs Are Saving the Day!

Nick and I don’t typically use this platform to highlight loan programs—we usually focus on broader economic updates that impact the real estate and mortgage markets as a whole.

But every now and then, something comes along that’s just too impactful not to share. One of those programs is the Buy Before You Sell option—and lately, it’s been a complete game changer for our clients!

Here’s the deal: If a homeowner has a decent amount of equity in their current home, there’s a good chance they can buy their next home without having to sell first. That means no contingent offers, no rushed double moves, and far less stress.

In fact, we closed three deals last month using this exact strategy—each with buyers who were originally told by other lenders that they had to sell their current home first. That wasn’t true, and we were able to structure each deal using the Buy Before You Sell program to keep things clean and non-contingent.

Instagram Reels from the Week

Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!