Kevin Warsh Just Took the Wheel at the Federal Reserve. Now What?

I am in my yard era and there is no going back.

It began with a zero-turn mower and has since escalated to transplanting trees, moving literal mountains of dirt, leveling low spots and fixing sprinkler heads on what I can only describe as a rotating basis. I have become someone who looks forward to weekends not for rest, but for the opportunity to give myself an achy back, sore hands and extremely dirty clothes. If you need me, I'll be outside. Assessing.

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Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended HIGHER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the mid 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you into the low-6’s.

Kevin Warsh Just Took the Wheel at the Federal Reserve. Now What?

After the most divisive confirmation vote in Fed history (54 to 45) Kevin Warsh officially took over from Jerome Powell on May 15. The expectations couldn't be more loaded. The President wants rate cuts. Homebuyers want relief. And an economy battered by Iran war inflation wants none of it.

Hey Kevin! Welcome to the hardest job in finance.

What He's Walking Into

Inflation hit 3.8% year-over-year in April, the highest since mid-2023 (driven by oil prices and the Iran conflict). The 30-year fixed is hovering over 6.5%, up sharply from the sub-6% rates seen at the end of February. And in an unprecedented twist, Powell is staying on as a governor through 2028, meaning Warsh will have his predecessor sitting in the room at every FOMC meeting.

The Political Pressure Problem

Here's my honest take as a loan officer.

Trump has made no secret that he expects Warsh to cut rates, and reportedly said he'd be "disappointed" if that didn't happen. With respect, that's the wrong framing entirely. The Fed's job is not to make the President happy. It's to control inflation and stabilize the economy. If Warsh simply rolls over under political pressure, that's not a win for homebuyers. That's short-term optics with serious long-term risk.

At his confirmation hearing, Warsh said: "Monetary policy independence is essential. Monetary policymakers must act in the nation's interest, their decisions the product of analytic rigor, meaningful deliberation, and unclouded decision-making." I hope he means it.

What Would Actually Make Him Successful

One word: stability.

As a loan officer, the most damaging thing I've watched isn't any single rate number, it's the violent swings. Rates at 5.99% in late February. Then 6.46% in late March. Then briefly 6.19%. Now back above 6.5%. That whiplash is paralyzing buyers who can't confidently model what their payment will be if they secure a contract.

A Fed chair who follows the data, protects independence, and delivers a narrower rate range will do more for this housing market than one who cuts prematurely to score political points, then has to reverse course when inflation reaccelerates.

Warsh's first FOMC meeting is June 16-17.

The $19 Trillion Housing Inventory Event Nobody Is Talking About

Everyone is focused on the wrong part of the great wealth transfer story.

Baby boomers own almost 41% of all real estate in the country (nearly $20 trillion worth) despite representing less than a fifth of the population.

That wealth will eventually transfer. But the more important housing market story isn't about inheritance checks. It's about what happens to all those homes.

Nearly 12,000 Americans turn 65 every day through 2027, the silver tsunami is at its absolute peak right now. And yet the inventory wave most economists predicted hasn't arrived. Boomers are aging in place, downsizing on their own timeline, and holding second homes indefinitely.

When boomer-owned homes do begin coming to market (through estate sales, health-driven moves, or heirs choosing to sell) it will be one of the largest inventory injections the housing market has ever seen. Millions of homes, concentrated in specific geographies, arriving over a compressed window. Check out Florida, for example. Huge boomer population and supply is starting to out-pace demand driving down prices. Cape Coral is down 10% (ATTOM Q1 2026 data).

For heirs who do inherit, property taxes and maintenance can turn a gift into a burden. When millions of heirs decide to sell simultaneously in the same markets, the inventory impact will be sudden rather than gradual.

Ohio First-Time Buyers: A Rate Sale Is Coming June 1st…And You Need to Move Now

The Ohio Housing Finance Agency (OHFA) just dropped a memo that every first-time homebuyer and real estate agent in Ohio needs to see.

Starting June 1, 2026, OHFA is offering below-market rates for first-time homebuyers for a limited time. When the funds are gone, they're gone.

The smartest move right now is to get them pre-approved immediately and be ready to reserve on June 1st.

This is not a drill. OHFA rate sales create a surge in volume that slows processing times significantly. Files get stuck in the queue. Incomplete submissions get pulled entirely. Last year we saw firsthand what happens when buyers and agents aren't prepared (delays, missed locks, frustrated closings).

Here's what has to happen between now and June 1st to get it right:

Buyers need to be fully pre-approved and have their documentation clean and complete. Homebuyer Education needs to be started the moment the loan is reserved. The file needs to be submitted to OHFA quickly, cleanly, and completely because incomplete files go to the back of the line, no exceptions.

This is exactly the kind of transaction where experience matters. Kreg and I have processed OHFA loans through rate sales before. We know the checklist, we know the timeline, and we know how to move fast without making mistakes.

If you have a buyer who could qualify as a first-time homebuyer in Ohio, send them over now so they are ready 💪

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