Mortgage Rates: Hot Mess Express šŸš‚šŸ”„

Charts for average mortgage rates looked like a bowl of spaghetti last week. Highs and lows, ups and downs. Where did we end after a SUPER volatile week? Why was the market so indecisive? Additionally, Rebel 2025 is in our rearview mirror and we are ecstatic about the results.

Author

Kreg King
February 17, 2025

The šŸŽ¢ of emotions this week was for real!! From our REbel event with over 350 attendees, to rates soaring and then plummetingā€¦ it honestly feels like we got hit by a metaphorical šŸšŒ!

But looking back, the week wrapped up on a high note. Letā€™s break down some of the most impactful events that affected us all last week.

Letā€™s goooo!

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Read time: ~4 minutes

Rates ended LOWER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the high 6 range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the mid to mid 6's.

Mortgage Rates: Hot Mess Express šŸš‚šŸ”„

A chart for those inquiring about interest rates this week šŸ·šŸ„ƒ

Mortgage rates were legit all over the place this week! Over the span of just a few days, the same website featured the following headlines literally 2 days apart:

It's comical to see such a wide discrepancy in reporting within just a few days. We went from an apocalyptic day on Wednesday to angels singing for the mortgage gods on Friday. Let's breakdown what happened.....

Inflation Spikes to Dangerous Levels šŸ˜©šŸ˜©

The mortgage rollercoaster took off on Wednesday morning following the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report. Every CPI reading came in scorching šŸ”„šŸ”„šŸ”„:

CPI Month-over-Month: Actual: +0.5% | Estimate: +0.3%

CPI Year-over-Year: Actual: +3.0% | Estimate: +2.9%

Thereā€™s no sugarcoating itā€”this is bad. Bad for mortgage rates and bad for the economy. The Fed has repeatedly stated its target inflation rate is 2%, yet inflation is now rising to 3%! šŸ™ Given these numbers, there is absolutely no incentive for the Fed to cut interest rates anytime soon. The chances of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in March is now at 97%. Ain't no rate cut coming anytime soon!

Key Takeaway: Inflation is heading in the wrong direction. As it continues to rise, the Fed is likely to keep rates steadyā€”or even consider raising them to cool inflation. The chances of a rate cut in March are now almost nonexistent.

DOGE & Weak Retail Sales Drop Rates

Nick and I found ourselves sitting across from each other at dinner Wednesday night, staring into our tiramisu-turned-soup, questioning our life choices. With rates spiking to 7.15%, we couldn't help but wonderā€”what the hell was going on in the mortgage world?

For a hot second, we even contemplated if we should start looking for jobs selling cars or starting an Only Fans account....(I kid, I kid! šŸ¤£)

Then, as the mortgage gods always do, we were blessed with rates pulling back on Thursday and Friday!

The first major factor behind this sudden shift? The current administration:

Again, Nick and I will always remain neutral and bipartisan. Our goal is to break down what's driving the real estate and mortgage market. Right now, it's clear that economic traders are reacting to the current administration's ongoing push for lower rates, and mortgage rates improved shortly after this tweet.

Then came the cherry on topā€”Friday morningā€™s weaker retail sales report. Remember, mortgage rates tend to drop when economic data comes in weaker than expected. By the end of it all, rates dipped back below 7% in just two days! Thank you, sweet baby Jesus!

Key Takeaway: Weaker retail sales and a push for lower rates helped, but hitting sub-6% will take a major job market slowdown.

Glennda SHINES @ REbel 2025

After years and years of preparation, our REbel 2025 event is officially in the history books.

Central Ohio SHOWED UP at Retreat 21 on Thursday. Almost 400 real estate agents, loan officers, insurance reps, title reps and small business owners came together under one roof. Attendees gained insights on how they can rebel against the standards in their industry, gain attention and propel their career to the next level.

On behalf of myself, Nick, Ryan and Justin, THANK YOU to our significant others, families and kiddos for the support through the preparation of the event. We missed countless events, family dinners and bedtime routines pulling things together. THANK YOU to the sponsors! Without your support, this event would have genuinely never happened. Lastly, THANK YOU to YOU who showed up, gave us your time/attention and left promising to us and yourself that youā€™ll do the hard work to take your business to the next level.

And donā€™t worry, weā€™ll be rebelling again in 2026 šŸ¤œšŸ¤›

Instagram Reels from the Week

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Donā€™t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!