Ohio Just Won Two Big Ones. Both Point the Same Direction.

This weekend the Steinhauer and King kids joined forces to help me and Ash mulch the house. Wheelbarrows, rakes, the whole operation.

They put on summer jams, huddled up and came up with an actual "strat" to move faster, and then laughed their way through the entire job. Everybody had a role. Nobody complained. I even saw Big Griff trying to carry more mulch than anybody else.

At one point I just stopped and watched. Seeing your own kids work hard alongside your best friend's kids hits different. Felt like a glimpse of who they're becoming, and I liked what I saw.

The beds look great. That's not the part I'll remember.

Alright, on to the news.

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Rates ended HIGHER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the high 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you into the low-to-mid-6’s.

Housing Just Became the Main Character of the Midterms

CNBC dropped a survey this week that should get every real estate professional's attention.

Voters 18 to 34 were asked what matters most to them politically, and the answer isn't inflation, immigration, or foreign policy. It's housing costs. Ranked above the price of groceries.

An entire generation just told pollsters that being able to afford a place to live outranks basically everything else on the ballot.

The numbers behind the frustration are brutal. Households now need roughly $120,000 in income to buy the median home. Median income is $85,000. Homes priced under $350,000 have shrunk from 60% of listings in 2019 to just 40% today. And the median first-time buyer is now 40 years old, up from around 29 a generation ago.

One pollster put it perfectly: housing could be the healthcare of 2024. Meaning it's about to dominate campaign ads, stump speeches, and legislation from now through November.

Expect a flood of housing proposals over the next few months. Some will be genuinely useful. Some will be noise.

Kreg and I will help you tell the difference.

Ohio Just Won Two Big Ones. Both Point the Same Direction.

I bet you thought I was going to talk about Iran or oil prices. Not this week, friends 🤣

This week the news was all about Ohio who got two genuinely great headlines, and they connect in a way that matters for anyone who owns, sells, or is thinking about buying a home here.

Win #1: We're officially the best state for business in America.

CNBC named Ohio America's Top State for Business for 2026, our first-ever number one finish. And the climb is the best part. Ohio finished 30th in the inaugural CNBC study back in 2007. The state once called the buckle of the Rust Belt scored 1,623 points out of a possible 2,500 to take the crown, edging out defending champ North Carolina.

CNBC credited the nation's best infrastructure, low business costs, more than 143 million people within a day's drive, low real estate costs, reasonable utility and insurance costs, and shovel-ready sites. Low real estate costs. That's us. Our affordability isn't just a nice perk for buyers anymore, it's a competitive advantage the entire country just noticed.

Win #2: Columbus unemployment hit 2.7%.

Axios reported the Columbus metro hit 2.7% unemployment in May, the lowest since at least 1990 and second lowest among all U.S. metros with a million-plus residents. Only Honolulu was lower. Cleveland and Cincinnati both sat at 3.1%.

No wonder the restaurants around town seem to be slammed and the malls are Black Friday crowded every…single…day.

Here's the housing tie-in. Nearly every Columbus industry saw only modest year-over-year employment change, except construction, which grew 10.6% since last June. Almost 69,000 people work construction here now, a number that has climbed every June since 2010 outside the pandemic year.

Jobs bring people. People buy homes. That flywheel is spinning right here.

Best state for business in America, and nearly everyone who wants a job has one. Not a bad week to be a Buckeye.

Should Buyers Use Retirement Savings to Buy a First Home?

I'm all about pushing homeownership when it makes sense for the buyer. But I'm not about to push bad ideas that put someone's future self in a far worse financial position.

Case in point: a proposal in Congress called the Uplifting First-Time Homebuyers Act. It would raise the IRA withdrawal limit from $10,000 to $50,000 for first-time buyers to use towards the purchase of their first home, without the 10% early withdrawal penalty.

In theory, great. The $10,000 cap was set in 1997 when the median home was $129,000. That number is stale and long overdue for adjustment. I’m not arguing with that.

Then NAR published an article defending it with math that doesn't hold up. Their claim: $50,000 in stocks at 10% annually returns $79,700 in gains over ten years, while $50,000 toward a $400,000 home builds $232,300 in equity.

Here's what's missing.

That's not stocks versus housing. That's unleveraged (stocks) versus 8-to-1 leveraged (housing). In an up market, of course the leveraged position wins.

The $232,300 in "equity" includes principal paydown, which is your own money moved from checking to house. The stock scenario assumes zero additional contributions. They're comparing one lump sum against a lump sum plus 120 monthly payments.

Every ownership cost is absent. Mortgage interest, property taxes, insurance, maintenance, PMI, and 6-8% in selling costs. The index fund fees are probably 1%.

They also used a modeled 10% for stocks but actual realized data for housing from 2016-2026. Could they have chosen a more skewed 10 year period? The US saw 3% rates and a pandemic price explosion. Not to mention, actual S&P returns over that same 10 year period were actually higher than 10%.

And income tax is never mentioned. The bill waives the penalty, not the tax. At 22%, your $50,000 becomes about $39,000.

Finally, the median first-time buyer is 40. Pulling $50,000 at 40 costs over $500,000 in retirement wealth by 65, using NAR's own 10% assumption.

Index the limit for inflation. Fine. But don't sell people a math problem that skips the costs.

Instagram Reels from the Week

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