Tariff War Begins - Get Ready for Fireworks 🧨🧨🧨

Where do we even begin?!

This past week was packed with more major events than we usually see in an entire year! From tariffs, the firing of the CFPB Director, to the rollback of fair housing protections, and the Fed meeting—so much has happened! While we can't cover everything, we'll dive into some of the most impactful events that affected the mortgage market from last week.

Let’s go!!

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~4 minutes

Rates ended FLAT compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the low 7 range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the mid to high 6's.

Tariff War Begins - Get Ready for Fireworks 🧨🧨🧨

Just as we were starting to see a trend of lower rates, we get snapped back to reality with the news of a looming tariff war this weekend.🤦‍♂️

If you watched the news this weekend, you likely heard about Trump imposing 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, along with 10% tariffs on China. Once the announcement dropped on Friday, mortgage rates quickly lost most of their gains from earlier in the week. 😭

So why did mortgage rates worsen on tariff news? Because many view tariffs as inflationary (which is bad for mortgage rates).

When businesses import goods, they’re the first to pay tariffs, and they have to decide whether to absorb the costs or pass them on to consumers. More often than not, we end up paying higher prices, which fuels inflation in the short term.

And remember, markets are both reactive and forward-looking, which is why rates tend to worsen when there are concerns about higher inflation in the near future.

However, what’s even more interesting is that as I write this on Monday morning, mortgage rates are already making a comeback. This suggests that the market is more concerned about tariffs slowing down the economy than driving inflation—further proof that uncertainty and chaos will continue to define Trump policies.

So, should you be concerned? Not necessarily. Nick and I don’t expect blanket tariffs for the entirety of Trump’s term—we believe this is more about negotiating better deals with other countries. Could tariffs be used to push nations into agreements? Absolutely. He did the same thing in 2018, only to see most of the tariffs lifted by mid-2019. We see this short-term tactic playing out again to simply secure better deals.

So, no need to panic—all will be fine 🤞

Trump Demands Lower Rates: Powell Says Not So Fast!

Get your popcorn ready—Trump vs. Powell is starting to 🔥🔥🔥 up!

As Nick mentioned last week, President Trump sent a direct message to the Federal Reserve: "I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately."

That set the stage for a critical Fed meeting Wednesday, where Powell held firm, keeping rates unchanged and breaking the cycle of rate cuts that began in September.

Powell made it very clear that they are in no rush to adjust interest rates.

He declined to comment on "anything the president said about interest rates."

Immediately following the Fed meeting, Trump criticized Powell stating "Because Powell and the Fed have failed to stop the inflation problem they created, I will do it by unleashing American energy production, cutting regulations, rebalancing international trade, and revitalizing American manufacturing."

The president doesn’t control interest rates because the Federal Reserve operates independently, settling monetary policy based on economic conditions—not political influence. Powell is in "wait-and-see" mode as he monitors inflation, employment data, and the impact of Trump’s tariff policies.

Market expectations for rate cuts in 2025 continue to decline. Polymarket is currently sitting at an 86% chance that rates will remain unchanged at the Fed’s March meeting.

Big Week Ahead for Jobs!🍿

• Tuesday - JOLTs Job Openings Data : Fewer openings could signal a slowing economy, potentially leading to lower mortgage rates. Forecast currently 7.88M.

• Wednesday - ADP Employment Data : More employment data released on Wednesday. Could see a big swing in rates depending on the data that is released. Forecast currently 149K.

• Friday - January Jobs Report : This is the most important employment data released this week. Forecast currently 154K jobs added (256K previous report) and unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 4.1%.

Glennda Baker Joins the Rebellion 💪

On Wednesday, we FINALLY unveiled the keynote speaker at our Rebel 2025 event, taking place on Thursday, February 13th.

It’s the one and only Queen of Real Estate, Glennda Baker!

Her passion is leveling-up agents around the country with her love for real estate. She’ll be explaining how she leverages social media to educate and lead generate. Additionally, we will have a one-on-one Q&A with Glennda as part of the main event.

This is the part where I invite you to buy tickets, but the event is already SOLD OUT!

It shocked us, too. Demand was FOR REAL and tickets were gone within 70 minutes of launch.

We are actively working with the venue to try and open up additional seats. Stay tuned to our socials for any updates, but we can’t make any guarantees.

Instagram Reels from the Week

Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!