Tariff Wars Back - Rates Set to Plunge?! 🥊

Stocks tanked after Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, sparking one of the biggest single-day rate improvements we’ve seen in weeks. 🏠📉 While mortgage rates dipped short-term, the long-term risk is inflation — which could reverse those gains fast. Meanwhile, the housing market is moving at its slowest pace since 2009, but that’s where tough agents sharpen their edge and seize new opportunities.

Author

Kreg King
October 13, 2025

What a wild finish to what we thought was going to be a slow week! We’re here to break down the big market moves we saw on Friday. Quick heads-up — your 401k might be crying, but your buyers are going to love the lower rates!

Let’s dive in!!

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended LOWER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates remain in the low to mid 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the low 6's.

Tariff Wars Back - Rates Set to Plunge?! 🥊

Words of caution...If you didn’t check your 401k on Friday... maybe don’t.

The stock market took an absolute beating after Trump announced a 100% tariff on imports from China. As soon as the news broke, stocks tanked — and yes, that means your investments did too 😭

But again, we aren't here to dwell on economic news. We all want to know, how does this affect mortgage rates? 

Well, here’s the silver lining: while stocks fell, mortgage rates actually improved (let’s gooo!) — dropping about 0.125% shortly after the announcement!

Why? When unexpected news like this spooks the markets, investors often pull money out of stocks and move it into safer investments like bonds. When bonds rally, mortgage rates (which are tied to mortgage-backed securities) tend to move lower.

That’s exactly what happened Friday — one of the biggest single-day rate improvements we’ve seen in weeks!

Now, before you get all fat and happy off this rate improvement news, Nick and I have to throw in a little reality check: the long-term effects of a 100% tariff on China are NOT good for mortgage rates. A 100% tariff on China could cause inflation to spike, which would push mortgage rates higher, and stop the Fed from cutting rates anytime soon 🙁

We’ll be watching this one closely to see how it plays out. 👀

Key Takeaway: Friday’s tariff news gave us a short-term win with slightly lower mortgage rates, but it may come with longer-term challenges. If tariffs push inflation higher, it could keep rates elevated and delay any Fed rate cuts. In short—enjoy the dip, but don’t count on it lasting.

The Slowest Market Since 2009… and Why That’s Not All Bad!

If you feel like the market is slowing, you are not alone. Nick and I track our lead count religiously, and there’s been a clear drop in new buyer activity since the government shutdown announcement. So much, it led me to do some digging into historic buyer demand — and what I found was shocking.

To start 2025, existing home sales are averaging just 4.05 million — the second-lowest level on record. The only year worse? 2009.

I’m not sharing this to scare you — I’m sharing it to congratulate you. If you’re still in the business and reading this, you’ve survived one of the toughest markets we’ve seen since the housing crash. I started my career during that time, and believe me — it was ROUGH!!

The moral of the story is that the market is changing right in front of us. And that means we have to change and adapt with it!

If you have listings, set clear expectations. The days of multiple offers and 24-hour sales are likely behind us — at least for now. You get one shot to impress the limited pool of active buyers. So make it count. Declutter, fix the oddities, throw on a fresh coat of paint, and yes — invest in freaking staging! First impressions matter more than ever. If the house doesn't wow you the moment it hits the market, the chances are the limited number of buyers on the market feel the same.

If you’re working with a buyer, congratulations — they’re rare! And remind them that this could actually be one of the best opportunities in the past 20 years to purchase a home. The numbers don’t lie.

Key Takeaway: We’re in one of the toughest markets we’ve seen in years, but that’s exactly where opportunity is born. The agents who roll with the punches, set the right expectations, and keep sharpening their game will be the ones still standing (and winning) when things turn. Tough markets build tougher agents!

Government Shutdown Continues — How It's Impacting Home Sales

We’re nearly two weeks into the government shutdown, and the effects are starting to show in certain areas of the housing market. Here’s a quick breakdown:

What’s running normally:

  • Conventional Loans — no issues

  • Cash Sales and Jumbo Loans — no impact

Where we are seeing delays:

  • VA Loans: Mostly fine unless the borrower is on active military training. 

  • USDA Loans: Currently frozen

  • FHA Loans: Usually fine, except for manually underwritten loans needing FHA approval or condo approvals that need exceptions

  • Flood Zone Homes: Cannot close right now

  • IRS & Social Security Documents: Still accessible online; no delays reported yet

Key Takeaway: Most home sales are still moving along, but some government-backed loans and approvals are starting to hit snags. VA, USDA, FHA, and flood-zone closings could be delayed, so keep your clients in the loop. Staying on top of these issues now will save headaches down the road.

Rebel 2026 - Speaker Reveal & Tickets Go On Sale 10/21

350 seats disappeared in 70 minutes, and those who waited missed out. That’s what happened at last year’s speaker reveal and we don’t want that happening to you this year.

What is Rebel?

Rebel is a one-day event where professional misfits, marketers, and entrepreneurs come together to burn the old playbook and build something better. Raw. Loud. Unlike anything this industry has seen.

Mark Your Calendars 📅 The big event will be on Thursday February 5th, 2026

But first…

RSVP for the LIVE Reveal

October 21 @ 12:00 PM EST | The First Transmission

  • We will share some big surprises including the secret speaker lineup

  • The unfiltered reason we built this event

  • Your first chance at tickets before the industry even blinks

Instagram Reels from the Week

Two Ways We Can Help

  1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

  2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!