Tasty Rates for a Busy Spring/Summer Are Souring Fast

Today I turn 42 and honestly, I couldn't be more grateful. Every week I get to do something I genuinely love…educate people, help finance dreams and do it all alongside my best buddy Kreg.

Here's to another trip around the sun and another week of good content for the best audience in the business. 🎂

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Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended HIGHER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the mid 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you into the low-6’s.

Tasty Rates for a Busy Spring/Summer Are Souring Fast

Three weeks ago rates were flirting with 3-year lows at 5.98%. As of Friday, the 30-year fixed is sitting at 6.53% and climbing. A half-point move in less than a month, and this week gave us two big reasons why.

The Fed held. Again.

At its March 17-18 meeting, the Jerome Powell and the FOMC voted to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%. The updated projections showed the median Fed member now expects higher inflation in 2026, and a growing number of members now expect no cuts, or at most one, to the federal funds rate this year.

In plain terms: the Fed's own economists are dialing back rate cut expectations in real time. The housing finance industry began 2026 hoping inflation would cool enough for several rate cuts. The emerging consensus is now down to maybe one cut, near the end of the year.

Then the ECB piled on.

We don’t typically talk about our overseas friends. But when they cause additional problems stateside, Kreg and I are going to discuss.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank held rates steady as well, but what rattled markets wasn't the decision itself. It was the language. The ECB revised its medium-term inflation forecasts upward, with headline inflation now expected to average 2.6% in 2026, up sharply from its prior forecast of just under 2%. ECB President Christine Lagarde walked back her previous "good place" comments, warning that a major shock is now unfolding.

The Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of England all held rates this week as policymakers grapple with the uncertain outlook for inflation and growth stemming from the conflict in the Middle East.

When all three major central banks are holding and shifting their language hawkish at the same time, global bond markets notice, and so do mortgage rates.

The next Fed meeting is April 28-29. Watch oil prices between now and then. If the conflict cools and energy prices pull back, there's still a path to better rates this spring. But for now, buyers who find a home they love at a rate in the low 6s are still in a historically reasonable position. Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

One Bright Spot in a Rough Week for Rates

With all the bad rate news this week, there's at least one thing quietly working in the market's favor.

On Sunday, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have begun placing sizable orders to purchase mortgage-backed securities, stepping into a market roiled by widening bond spreads and a surge in volatility. Their efforts follow a directive from President Trump two months ago instructing the companies to acquire $200 billion of MBS as part of a push to drive down mortgage rates and bolster housing affordability.

When Fannie and Freddie buy up mortgage-backed securities, they're essentially creating demand for the bonds that mortgage rates are tied to. More demand for those bonds pushes prices up and yields down, which puts downward pressure on mortgage rates. Think of it as a counterweight.

The increased buying could help cushion the rate spike triggered by the Iran war. Still, it may only partially offset the broader market pressures stemming from the conflict.

This isn't a rate cut and it's not going to reverse the damage done this week overnight. But it's worth knowing that there's an active effort underway to keep rates from running completely off the rails. In a week full of headwinds, this is at least a small tailwind. 🪁

⚠️ Warning: Those VA Appraisal Posts Circulating on Facebook Are Not Verified

If you've been scrolling Facebook this week you've probably seen it. Posts claiming that the VA is eliminating several appraisal requirements starting May 1st, including peeling paint rules on homes built after 1978, compliance requirements for sheds and outbuildings, radon requirements for builders, and oxygen depletion sensor and fireplace certifications.

It sounds great. And honestly, if true, it would be a big deal for Veterans and the agents who serve them.

But here's the problem: Kreg and I cannot find a single credible source confirming any of it.

No VA circular. No official guideline update. No published confirmation from the VA, HUD, or any reputable industry publication. Just social media posts sharing other social media posts.

This matters because if you start telling your clients, your sellers, or your builders that these rules are changing on May 1st and they turn out not to be, your credibility takes the hit. The last thing you need is to promise a seller that certain appraisal requirements are going away and then watch a deal fall apart because they weren't.

Do not adopt this information until it is confirmed directly by the VA through an official circular or verified by a credible industry source like HousingWire, the Mortgage Bankers Association, the National Association of Realtors or Nick & Kreg 💪

We are watching this closely and will update you the moment we can verify it one way or the other. If these changes are real, we'll shout it from the rooftops because VA loans deserve better than the reputation they've gotten from an outdated appraisal process.

Stay tuned and stay skeptical. 👀

Fannie & Freddie Just Changed the Rules on Insurance and Condos

Among the many insurance and condo guideline changes announced this week, three are worth knowing from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Two are wins you can use right now.

The Roof Coverage Win (Effective Immediately)

This one has been killing deals on older homes for years. Previously, lenders had to verify that roof coverage was on a full replacement cost basis, meaning insurance had to cover the cost to replace the roof brand new. That requirement is gone. Actual cash value coverage for roofs is now acceptable. If you've had a deal fall apart over roof insurance requirements recently, it may be worth taking a second look.

Owner Occupancy Requirement Dropped for Investment Condos (Effective Immediately)

The old rule required at least 50% of units in a condo building to be owner-occupied before an investment property purchase could be financed there. That requirement has been eliminated entirely. This quietly opens up a meaningful number of condo buildings that were previously off-limits for investor buyers and should make financing condo investments noticeably easier going forward.

Replacement Reserves Going Up (Effective January 2027)

This one is a heads up more than an immediate concern. Starting January 2027, condo associations will be required to set aside 15% of their annual assessment income for replacement reserves, up from the current 10%. If you work in condo-heavy markets, start having this conversation with buyers and HOA contacts now. Nobody wants to find out at closing that the association's budget doesn't meet the new standard.

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