The Housing Market Has a Dark Side...

A few years ago I took the family to Disney World and scored something pretty special, after-hours passes to Hollywood Studios at midnight when May 3rd turned into May 4th. The place was packed with the most committed Star Wars fans I've ever seen in my life. Full costumes, full character, zero apologies. It was genuinely one of those moments you don't forget.

Which means a lot coming from a guy who grew up watching Star Trek with his mom and wore out all of his Star Wars VHS tapes.

To everyone who celebrates today — May the 4th be with you. Always.

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Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended LOWER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the low 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you into the high-5’s or low-6’s.

The Housing Market Has a Dark Side…

The Dark Side didn't announce itself. It crept in quietly starting February 28 when the Iran war began and gas prices jumped above $4 a gallon almost overnight. On Friday, I think I cried a little when I saw $4.99 at the pump.

Inflation climbed to its highest level in nearly three years. The Federal Reserve (which was supposed to cut rates this spring and give buyers the relief they'd been waiting for) held firm instead. Growing fears of inflation caused by higher gas prices driving up the costs of shipping, food, and heating shifted rate cut expectations dramatically.

Then there's the foreclosure story. There were 118,727 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings in Q1 2026 (up 26% from a year ago). Foreclosure starts have risen 20% annually and bank repossessions have climbed 45% year over year. Those are real numbers, though still small relative to the Great Financial Crisis, they are moving in the wrong direction.

That's the real Dark Side of this market. It's not bad mortgages and reckless lending like 2008. It's the slow squeeze of inflation, elevated rates that never came down, home insurance bills that jumped 12% in a single year, property taxes pumping and a job market softening in certain areas at exactly the wrong time for families already stretched thin. Consumer debt is at an all-time high, delinquencies are rising in auto loans and credit cards, and one unexpected event is all it takes to push a household over the edge.

The Emperor would be pleased.

But he hasn't won yet.

A New Hope for the 2026 Housing Market

Here's what the doom-and-gloom headlines aren't telling you.

While the Dark Side of the market is real, a completely different story is playing out simultaneously and it's the one that actually matters if you're thinking about buying or selling right now.

Buyers stopped waiting.

80% of buyers are actively in the market right now and are NOT waiting for rates to drop. Only 20% are still sitting on the sidelines. These aren't reckless buyers. They're buyers who have accepted reality, done the math, and decided that waiting for a number that may never arrive isn't a strategy.

The lock-in villain is cracking.

One in three sellers currently listing their home has a mortgage rate below 5% and they're selling anyway. This is enormous. The lock-in effect (the force that handcuffed housing inventory for three straight years) is finally starting to break. Life circumstances are winning over rate preservation. Sellers are moving. Inventory is coming to market. That's the supply release buyers have been waiting for.

Purchase applications just hit 20% above year-ago levels. Let’s go!

And then there's central Ohio.

While the national market battles inflation and rate uncertainty, Midwest agents are the most likely in the country to describe current conditions as a seller's market.

Franklin County is up 4% year over year. Homes are selling at 97 cents on the dollar. Supply sits between 0.9 and 1.8 months depending on the district. Bidding wars are real. Appraisal gaps are real (ask me because I heard about a $40,000 offer over ask this past weekend). The national headlines read like The Empire Strikes Back. Central Ohio right now in already in Return of the Jedi mode.

So what does winning look like in this market?

The buyers winning right now locked in at 6.125% when rates briefly dipped. They had their documentation clean. They knew their numbers. They had an agent who showed them local data instead of national noise.

The Force has always been about preparation, knowledge, and timing.

So has homeownership.

The Bank of Mom and Dad Is Now a Mortgage Strategy

Kreg and I have noticed something recently during initial consultations with buyers. More and more want to buy a home but don’t have access to funds to help with the down payment.

So I dug into the data.

Here's what the data is telling us loud and clear: for Gen Z buyers, getting into a home has become a team sport. Ash and I have already had the conversation of setting aside funds to help our girls in the event they need a boost when the time comes for them to buy.

A recent LendingTree survey of first-time homeowners found that almost 80% of Gen Z respondents received financial help buying their home compared with 56% of millennials and just 12% of baby boomers. More than 1 in 3 people who received help said they likely couldn't have purchased their home without it.

The help, when it comes, is doing real work: 43% of recipients said it helped them qualify for a mortgage, and 33% said it lowered their monthly payment by reducing the loan amount.

What This Means If You Work With Buyers

Nearly 60% of parents have provided or plan to provide financial assistance to their children for homeownership. That means the family money conversation is already happening at kitchen tables everywhere so Kreg and I are bringing it up in our initial consults.

If you're not proactively asking Gen Z buyers about family support early in the process, you're missing a conversation that could be the difference between qualifying and not qualifying. Bust the 20% myth on day one. Make sure these clients know there are options for as little as 3-3.5% down.

Some buyers don’t have access to family money. That’s okay, down payment assistance programs are available nationwide.

And one more thing: 21% of Gen Z buyers who accepted family help felt embarrassed about it. That's our cue. Normalize it. Taking help to build long-term wealth isn't charity, it's actually strategy.

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Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!