The Housing Market Has a Generational Problem

Three years. Countless hours of research. Spreadsheets. Sleepless nights. Neighbors quietly judging my lawn.

This weekend, I finally did it. I bought a lawn mower.

And I have never (not once in my adult life) had more fun doing yard work. If you need me, I'll be looking for excuses to mow.

Let’s dive into the housing news 💪

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Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended LOWER compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the low 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you into the high-5’s or low-6’s.

The Housing Market Has a Generational Problem

NAR's just-released 2026 Generational Trends Report tells one clear story: this market belongs to people who already own homes and everyone else is getting squeezed out.

The numbers that matter:

Baby boomers make up 42% of all buyers AND 55% of all sellers. One generation is controlling both sides of the transaction.

First-time buyers just hit 21% which is the lowest level ever recorded, down from a historical norm of around 40%. That's a structural collapse in entry-level participation.

Among younger millennials, only 60% of those buying were first-timers (down from 71% just one year ago). The most likely first-time buyers are dropping out faster than any other group.

Why it's happening: Boomers have decades of equity. They can make large down payments, compete in cash, and move when they want to. First-time buyers are showing up to a fight they aren’t equipped for.

The silver lining: NAR notes there is a massive pipeline of young adults who have been waiting on the sidelines, and that pent-up demand is real. When rates improve and more inventory reaches affordable price points, that demand will release in epic proportions.

One more number worth knowing: 88% of all buyers still purchased through a real estate agent, and 91% said they'd use their agent again. In a complicated market, people want a trusted professional in their corner.

📣 Heads Up, Borrowers: The SAVE Plan Is Ending Soon

I recently had a conversation with a student loan strategist that stopped me in my tracks. What they shared wasn't just eye-opening, it's something that will directly impact millions of borrowers, and almost no one is talking about it yet. If you or your clients carry federal student loans, now is the time to pay attention.

What Was the SAVE Plan?

The SAVE Plan (Saving on a Valuable Education) was introduced by the Biden administration in 2023 as the most borrower-friendly federal student loan repayment option ever created. It reduced monthly payments based on income and family size, helped prevent loan interest from ballooning for those with lower payments, and fast-tracked forgiveness for certain low-income borrowers. Over 7 million borrowers enrolled in the plan.

So What Happened?

The Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals approved a settlement between the Trump administration and the state of Missouri that permanently eliminates the program. And most of those 7 million borrowers have already been sitting in forbearance for over a year while the legal battle played out.

Here's where it gets real: beginning on July 1, federal loan servicers will notify borrowers that they have 90 days to switch to a new repayment plan. Those who don't make a move by the deadline will be automatically enrolled in the Standard Repayment Plan, or the new Tiered Standard Plan.

What Are the New Options?

Under the One Big Beautiful Bill, new federal loan borrowers will have just two repayment plans to choose from starting in July 2026: the standard repayment plan and the new Repayment Assistance Plan. The Repayment Assistance Plan will allow borrowers to pay 1% to 10% of their income monthly for up to 30 years. That's a far cry from what SAVE offered.

Why Should Homebuyers Care?

This is where I put on my loan officer hat for a second. Student loan payments are a big deal in mortgage qualifying. Your monthly debt obligations (including student loans) directly affect your debt-to-income ratio (DTI), which is one of the key numbers lenders use to determine how much home you can afford.

When SAVE was in place, many borrowers had very low (sometimes even $0) monthly payment amounts, which kept their DTI in good shape for buying a home. When payments reset to a standard plan, those numbers could jump significantly which will affect how much mortgage you qualify for.

What Should You Do Right Now?

Borrowers should not wait for that July letter. Log in to your servicer account, review your options, use the federal loan simulator to compare repayment plans, and submit your application before the system gets overwhelmed.

And if you are thinking about buying a home in the next 6-12 months, talk to your mortgage guy or gal sooner rather than later. Understanding how your student loan payment impacts your buying power is exactly the kind of conversation worth having now.

Good News, Ohio: Your Dream Home Is Closer Than You Think

Visual Capitalist just dropped a fascinating study (sourced from Consumer Affairs data) mapping out exactly how long it takes the average household in every U.S. state to save for a home. They crunched median incomes, taxes, living costs, and home prices to figure out how many years it takes to save up a 10% down payment.

The national average sits at a whopping 14.4 years. Ouch.

But here in Ohio, we're sitting at a very comfortable #2 in the entire country.

Ohio buyers need just 9.9 years to save for a down payment, which is nearly five years faster than the average American. The only state that edges us out is Iowa, clocking in at 8.7 years.

What's making Ohio such a standout?

Lower home prices and more manageable tax burdens help shorten the path to ownership here compared to most of the country. Meanwhile, in California, it takes over 25 years to save — nearly three times longer than in Iowa, and even high earners pulling in around $100,000 can't outrun steep home prices and taxes. New York and Hawaii aren't far behind in the "good luck with that" category.

Six of the top 10 most affordable states in this study are right here in the Midwest, so if you've ever needed a data-backed reason to feel great about living in this region, there it is.

Instagram Reels from the Week

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Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!