United States & China Come to Agreement?!

What a beautiful Mother's Day weekend! Columbus truly delivered with picture perfect weather to celebrate all of the amazing moms out there. Hope y'all enjoyed some rest and relaxation because we are set for some fireworks this week in the market! We are here to break down the latest and greatest! Let's goooo!

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Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended FLAT compared to last week, and volatility was HIGH. Rates are in the high 6 range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the mid 6's.

United States & China Come to Agreement?!

One of the most interesting parts of our job is how closely tied it is to the economy. Between Nick and I, we speak with over 100 new homebuyers each month, giving us interesting insight to what today’s buyers are thinking—and more importantly, what’s holding them back.

Lately, one word sums up this market: Uncertainty.

• Uncertainty about mortgage rates 

• Uncertainty about the economy in general and talk of a recession

• Uncertainty about whether we’re in a housing bubble

• And now, uncertainty around ongoing trade tensions with China

Whenever uncertainty increases, Nick and I feel the slowdown almost immediately: fewer applications, and more pre-approved buyers electing to sit on the sidelines. But as soon as we get some clarity, activity skyrockets! A perfect example: right after the 2024 election was finalized, we saw a record number of buyers reach out to start the pre-approval process. That’s 100% proof that confidence will always fuel action!

Now, we might be approaching another very important turning point soon! This weekend, U.S. and Chinese officials met in Switzerland to discuss a potential trade deal —particularly one that rolls back tariffs. If both sides ultimately come to a mutually signed agreement, we could see inflation fears ease and stability enter back into the market! This would be wonderful for us in the mortgage world as lower inflation will lead to lower rates!

But if the deal turns out to be more political theater than substance—and the tariff threat remains intact—then uncertainty will continue to linger, and rates will likely stay elevated or climb higher 🙁

Fed Holds Rates Steady - Watching China Closely 👀

This past week, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, holding at 4.25%–4.50%, where it has been since December 2024. So why no rate cut, even with the economy flashing warning signs? 

One word: China. 

You better believe the Fed is watching intently on how ongoing trade negotiations might impact the economy. Hell, we haven't even begun to feel the full effects of the 100%+ tariffs that have been imposed on China. 

Jerome Powell said it himself on Wednesday, “There’s so much uncertainty,....If you talk to businesses, or market participants, or forecasters, everyone is just waiting to see how developments play out.”

For us in the housing world, here’s our takeaway: the Fed doesn’t know what the hell is going on.

Inflation is slowing, which is usually good for rates, but uncertainty around tariffs and economic growth has them scared to death and electing to play it safe for now. While they didn’t cut rates, they also didn’t hint at any hikes either, which is good. 🤷‍♂️

New Tax Bill Could Be Key to Unlock Thousands of Listings!

Nick and I always tread carefully when it comes to financial or tax advice—we're not CPAs, so we encourage you and your clients to speak with a qualified tax professional for specifics. That said, we stay on top of the issues that impact our market, and capital gains taxes are quickly becoming one of the most talked-about topics.

Recently, there’s been a growing push to update the Capital Gains Tax Exclusion, which currently allows homeowners to exclude up to $250,000 ($500,000 for married couples) in profit from the sale of their primary residence. The problem? That cap hasn’t changed since 1997, even though home values have surged. 🤯

Today, more and more homeowners are facing huge taxable gains when they go to sell their property. In 2023, nearly 8% of all U.S. home sales exceeded the exemption threshold of $250,000 ($500,000 for married couples), leading many would-be sellers to elect to stay put to avoid huge tax bills. Many are even deciding to hold onto homes until death, allowing heirs to inherit the property tax-free.

The recently proposed More Homes on the Market Act is bipartisan legislation that would update the tax code to double the exemption to $500,000 ($1M for married couples) and index it to inflation. If passed, it could free up a significant amount of inventory! God knows, we need to continue to find ways to incentivize homeowners to sell their properties to help increase the housing supply and alleviate affordability challenges in our communities!

📅Mark Your Calendars - 5/21 - Agent Refresh & Reboot

Kreg and I are hitting the stage at Agent Refresh & Reboot on Wednesday, 5/21, and it’s going down at the stunning Venue at Hocking Hills Cabins & Resort. 🌲🎤

🔥 It’s your mid-season mindset reset.
🧠 Come fuel up with fresh ideas, power-packed strategies, and a few surprise gems from a killer speaker lineup (yes, we’re bringing the heat too).

🕙 10AM–Noon: Game-changing insights.
🍽️ Noon: Lunch is on deck.
💆‍♀️ Mini massages? ✅
💐 Fresh bouquets to take home? Yup, we got those too.

Whether you need a second-half strategy boost or just a break from the grind—this event is your moment.

Come reset, recharge, and crush the rest of 2025. Let’s go! 💥

Instagram Reels from the Week

Two Ways We Can Help

1. Let’s collaborate – schedule a zoom meeting

2. Tough deal?  Let us help!

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you need anything at all. Have a wonderful week!