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What a Government Shutdown Could Mean for Rates & Closings ⚠️

What a Government Shutdown Could Mean for Rates & Closings ⚠️

A government shutdown is set to hit Tuesday, September 30th at 11:59 PM, and it could rattle housing in ways you don’t expect. Yet there’s a twist: history shows shutdowns can push mortgage rates lower as investors flee to safe assets. This week’s big jobs report on Friday is the next biggest indicator for where rates go next.

Kreg King
September 29, 2025

Buckle up—this week is full of twists that could move the housing market. We have mortgage rates rising, a government shutdown looming, and a $100K H-1B fee shaking up the housing market. Man, what a busy week! We are here to break it all down.

Let's goooo!

We are posting regular content to Instagram (Nick | Kreg) and Facebook (Nick | Kreg) to help you and your buyers stay informed. Be sure to follow us!

Read time: ~5 minutes

Rates ended HIGHER compared to last week, and volatility was MODERATE. Rates remain in the low to mid 6% range for most loan types without paying discount points. Paying discount points can get you in the low 6's.

What a Government Shutdown Could Mean for Rates & Closings ⚠️

It's September 29th, 2025

The Government shuts down Tuesday, September 30th at 11:59 PM ⌛

Threats of government shutdowns have become all too common in recent years.

Unfortunately, these last-minute standoffs have become routine—and they can create headaches for us all in the housing industry.

While past shutdowns haven’t stopped real estate entirely, they’ve caused real challenges. Here’s what to watch for this time around:

Loan Processing Delays – We will still be able to close FHA, VA, and USDA loans (Woohoo!). However, we may face slowdowns. IRS transcripts may be unavailable (a big issue for self-employed borrowers), and reduced federal staffing could slow certain verifications.
Flood Insurance Interruptions – If the National Flood Insurance Program shuts down, closings in flood-prone areas could be delayed or even canceled.
Buyer Confidence Drops – Uncertainty about the economy or job security may cause some buyers to pause.

History does give us perspective: both the 2013 and 2018–19 shutdowns delayed closings and added stress, though the housing market still hummed along. The biggest challenge is uncertainty—especially if critical reports like the monthly jobs data are delayed.

The silver lining? Mortgage rates tend to fall during government shutdowns as investors seek safe-haven assets like Treasuries. 🙌

Key Takeaway: A government shutdown doesn’t stop real estate, but it can slow loan approvals and shake buyer confidence. The biggest challenge is uncertainty, though history shows shutdowns have sometimes pushed mortgage rates lower as investors move into safer assets.

Rates Continue Higher After Fed Meeting😭

As much as we don’t like to say “we told you so,” Nick and I did warn that mortgage rates might actually go UP after the Fed meeting—and that’s exactly what happened. As you know by now, the same thing played out last year: the Fed cut rates in September 2024, and mortgage rates still climbed from 6.125% to over 7% in just two months.

We’re not seeing the same swing we saw in 2024 yet, but even a 0.25% increase feels like a punch to the face. If we didn't learn last year, hopefully we learned this year. Mortgage rates are not directly correlated to the Fed Funds Rate!

Right now, 30-year fixed rates are sitting in the high 6.3% range—still lower than anything we’ve seen since last October (if you take out September 5–17).

Big market movers this week could push rates in either direction, with the most notable being the jobs report scheduled for Friday, October 3rd. A weak report could send rates tumbling, while stronger-than-expected job growth could push them higher. We’ll be watching closely!

Key Takeaway: Mortgage rates continue to rise slightly after the Fed meeting, reminding us that they don’t always move in line with the Fed Funds Rate. Huge jobs report will be released on Friday, which could push rates higher or lower. All should stay alert!

Companies Most Impacted by $100K H-1B Work Visa

Nick mentioned in last week’s newsletter, the Trump administration announced that they would raise the fee for an H-1B visa holder to $100,000, leaving many companies scrambling. Many companies hire foreign workers under the H-1B Work Visa, which allows U.S. employers to bring in highly skilled professionals. The goal for the administration is to encourage hiring American workers rather than relying on foreign labor.

This change could ripple through both the job and real estate markets. Nick and I currently originate 2–3 loans each month for H-1B visa holders. In Ohio alone, nearly 4,000 H-1B workers are employed by 891 companies, including Ohio State, OhioHealth, Cardinal Health, and Huntington Bank.

Below is a list of companies with the highest exposure to H-1B Visa applications:

Ohio is rapidly becoming a hub for tech and finance companies that depend on H-1B talent, particularly from India and China, which accounted for 71% and 11.7% of visa holders last year. A reduction in H-1B workers could slow housing demand in neighborhoods popular with these employees, potentially leading to longer listing times, slower price growth, and reduced rental activity.

At the same time, this shift could create opportunities for U.S. citizens ready to step into high-paying tech and finance roles—especially with major players like NVIDIA/Intel, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon establishing a stronger presence in the state.

For Columbus’ real estate market, however, a significant drop in H-1B workers in the short term could have a measurable impact on both home sales and rentals in the years ahead. It will be interesting to watch how this unfolds...

Rebel 2026 - Speaker Reveal & Tickets Go On Sale 10/21

350 seats disappeared in 70 minutes, and those who waited missed out. That’s what happened at last year’s speaker reveal and we don’t want that happening to you this year.

What is Rebel?

Rebel is a one-day event where professional misfits, marketers, and entrepreneurs come together to burn the old playbook and build something better. Raw. Loud. Unlike anything this industry has seen.

Mark Your Calendars 📅 The big event will be on Thursday February 5th, 2026

But first…