- Kreg & Nick - Weekly Mortgage Update
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Archive
The "Spread" and Why It Matters
I'm de-mystifying the real reason mortgage rates are still high—the spread between the 10-year Treasury and 30-year mortgage rates—and why that gap matters more than the Fed. I also reflected on the legacy of Hulk Hogan and what I've learned from his larger-than-life personality. Plus, don't miss your early shot at Rebel 2026 VIP tickets (Aug 5) and the Big Summer Bash on Aug 12.
Inflation Heats Up 🔥🔥 You Can Thank Tariffs!
Inflation heated up in June, with tariffs pushing prices higher and keeping the Fed from cutting rates anytime soon. Even with Trump calling for massive rate cuts, mortgage rates aren’t likely to drop quickly—and we may be stuck in a “higher for longer” environment. The bright spot? Creative programs like Buy Before You Sell are helping buyers stay competitive, even in this tough market.
Big Win for Buyers: New Credit Score Approved for Mortgages
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now accept VantageScore 4.0, giving lenders a real alternative to FICO. Only 1.1M first-time buyers purchased homes in 2024—the lowest since 1989. Rumors of Powell's resignation are swirling, but a premature exit could shake market stability.
"Big Beautiful Bill" Passes - How It Affects 🫵
The “Big Beautiful Bill” just passed, bringing major wins for agents, investors, and homeowners—from preserving the mortgage interest deduction to boosting real estate tax perks. Meanwhile, hopes for a July rate cut are officially dead as a strong jobs report gives the Fed every reason to hold steady. But the real spark? OHFA just slashed rates into the low 5’s, and it’s already driving serious buyer activity across Ohio.
Bitcoin Might Soon Help You Buy a House
From Bitcoin potentially counting toward mortgage assets, to Buy Now, Pay Later loans creeping onto credit reports, the game is changing fast. Plus, NAR’s top economist just laid out a playbook for finishing 2025 strong—and it’s packed with opportunity if you know where to look.
Oil Surge = Rate Surge? Real Estate’s New Threat
Global tensions are rising, but mortgage rates haven’t budged—2025 is breaking the usual playbook. If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, soaring oil prices could reignite inflation and keep rates elevated. Powell’s holding firm: no cuts until inflation cools.
⛽️ Conflict, Crude, and Closings: How the Israel-Iran Tension COULD Affect Rates
Geopolitical tension is heating up—and it’s not just overseas. Oil prices, inflation risk, and Fed policy are all on the table as conflict in the Middle East threatens global markets (and mortgage rates). Plus: why the MBA’s credit report reform won’t move the needle for buyers, and a fresh look at inflation data that’s cooler than expected—but still not cool enough for the Fed to cut.
Houston, We Have a Problem—How Should 🫵 Prepare?
🚨 The U.S. just crossed $37 trillion in debt—and it’s piling on another trillion every 100 days. Elon and Trump are throwing punches over it, but the real fight is with math that doesn’t lie. In a world where the money printer won’t stop, real estate remains your best defense—and your clients need to hear that from you now.
🏛 Fannie & Freddie: Time to Release or Keep Them on a Leash?
Fannie and Freddie might finally break free from government control—and the fallout could shake up rates, guidelines, and your closings. The HELPER Act is gaining steam, offering VA-style perks to teachers and first responders. Plus, a simple strategy to spark listings without making a single cold call.
Mortgage Rates Inch Higher—Again
Mortgage rates climbed again this week—driven by a weak bond auction and Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” which adds trillions to the deficit despite tax relief headlines. Meanwhile, global markets are reacting to delayed tariffs with optimism, but history shows that even “good news” can pressure rates up, not down.
🚨 Big Changes Coming to OHFA Assistance on July 1st!
OHFA is cutting back its down payment assistance—meaning less help for buyers and more need for strategy. Lower.com just acquired Movoto, setting the stage for a fully integrated home search + mortgage experience—and opening new lead-gen doors for plugged-in agents. Both changes could seriously shift how we help buyers win—so now’s the time to get ahead of it.